NYT/Siena poll shows Texas Senate race tied at 47-47, putting deep-red state in play

The Hill—A New York Times/Siena College poll shows Democrat Chris Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton deadlocked at 47% each among likely voters in the Texas Senate race, turning a state Republicans expected to hold easily into a toss-up. The result represents a remarkable shift in a state that has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1994. Analysts attributed the tightening to Paxton's legal controversies and shifting demographics in the state's major metros. A Talarico victory would dramatically reshape the Senate map and upend expectations heading into the fall.

• The Hill — The poll showed Talarico 47%, Paxton 47% — a statistical dead heat among likely voters.
• Memeorandum — NYT/Siena poll shows Texas Senate race tied, giving Democrats a rare opening
• Drudge Report — Polls show a tied Texas Senate race giving Democrats a real shot in deep-red state
• New York Times — Cross-Tabs: June 2026 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Texas